As you’ll probably know by now, we did not predict the outcome of the 2016 US election. We believe in owning up to failure and learning from it. We knew this would be a close election, and we are proud of sticking our necks out and making predictions. But on the big one, we failed.
Why did the method not work, and how can it work better next time? System 1 Politics is an experiment in applying to politics a method that works for brands. We’re looking back at our data to see if there were any tell-tale signs that would have pointed to President Trump, and we’ll be back with a post-mortem once we’ve done that.
For instance, back in January our pre-primaries model of the candidates showed Trump marginally ahead. But our prediction of shifts in the market suggested Hillary Clinton would overtake him. So our initial read reflected the actual outcome better than our prediction.
That’s the kind of thing we’ll be looking into as we refine and re-tune our method to study the French and German elections next year. Thanks for reading and being part of our project.
It’s been a long campaign, and the phrase “bitterly fought” has never been so appropriate. With one day to go, here are our final predictions based on our last weekly data wave. Continue reading “1 Day To Go!: Clinton Has The Edge”
Hillary Clinton’s lead on Fame, Feeling and Fluency over the last several weeks has been steady and strong. But it’s always been the case that a big external shock can change things – and the revelation that the FBI are reviewing new emails in her private server case certainly qualifies. Continue reading “1 Week To Go: The Race Tightens”
With just 2 weeks to go, Hillary Clinton is holding on to her 5-star position and Donald Trump continues to trail (see above). Continue reading “2 Weeks To Go: It’s Still Clinton!”
For the second time in our weekly tracker, Hillary Clinton’s 3Fs rating has crossed the 5-star boundary (see above).
Continue reading “3 Weeks To Go: It’s Gonna Be Clinton”
Our new wave of data takes in both Donald Trump’s ‘hot mic’ tape and the Sunday night debate in St. Louis, where Trump relentlessly attacked Hillary Clinton. It shows that both candidates have taken a hit to Feeling, reversing recent gains.
Continue reading “4 Weeks To Go: Mud Sticks, Trump Battles On”
Donald Trump’s “worst week ever” turned out to be a lot like Hillary Clinton’s “worst weekend ever” in September – it didn’t change much about the Fame, Feeling and Fluency fundamentals in the race. Hillary Clinton has a steady lead on Feeling, and retains a very slim post-debate advantage on Fluency. As for Trump, he hasn’t regained any ground, but he hasn’t blown his chances yet either.
Continue reading “5 Weeks To Go: Clinton Holding Steady”
We’ve been saying since we started studying the election that the debates would be won on Fluency – the part of our 3Fs model that’s all about candidates using their distinctive assets well and making it easy for people to process them as a choice.
We were right about that – but wrong about who would benefit! Continue reading “Post-Debate Special: 5-Star Clinton!”
For the first time in several weeks, our combined Fame-Feeling-Fluency star chart (above) shows an advantage for Hillary Clinton, as her Feeling score rises and Trump’s Fluency lead vanishes.
Continue reading “6 Weeks To Go: Don’t Count Clinton Out”
Once again, our combined Fame-Feeling-Fluency star chart (above) shows the race a tie on these fundamentals. But both candidates surged in Feeling: as decision day approaches, partisan voters are feeling more certain, and certainty breeds happiness.
Continue reading “7 Weeks To Go: Loyalties Firming Up”