5 Weeks To Go: Clinton Holding Steady

Donald Trump’s “worst week ever” turned out to be a lot like Hillary Clinton’s “worst weekend ever” in September – it didn’t change much about the Fame, Feeling and Fluency fundamentals in the race. Hillary Clinton has a steady lead on Feeling, and retains a very slim post-debate advantage on Fluency. As for Trump, he hasn’t regained any ground, but he hasn’t blown his chances yet either.


With just over a month to go, people’s emotional response to the candidates seems largely fixed, and the gap is still enough to give Clinton a firm advantage.


The only visible impact of the post-debate controversies? Those negative about Trump are now calling him a misogynist, not just a racist. But his speaking his mind is also singled out as a reason to like him. Meanwhile Clinton’s experience remains her big asset – though it’s never going to win over the people convinced she’s a liar.



The consistency of the 3Fs data suggests that beyond the media drama this is a race with not much more room to change. If so, that’s good news for Hillary Clinton. Our next update will go into fieldwork as soon as the second debate ends on Sunday.

Fieldwork dates: 30th September-3rd October. Next update: Wednesday 12th October.