4 Weeks To Go: Mud Sticks, Trump Battles On

Our new wave of data takes in both Donald Trump’s ‘hot mic’ tape and the Sunday night debate in St. Louis, where Trump relentlessly attacked Hillary Clinton. It shows that both candidates have taken a hit to Feeling, reversing recent gains.

But Clinton’s overall Feeling lead has hardly changed, and as the star chart (above) shows, the dynamics still favor her.

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If Trump can’t raise his own Feeling score, trying to damage Clinton’s is his best way to get back in contention.

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Participant comments run along familiar lines – an array of insults for Trump, and repeated “liar” claims about Clinton. Clinton’s score on Contempt jumped this week – from 4% to 10% – which may reflect Trump’s more focused debate attacks.

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But the overall picture is still clear. Hillary Clinton has a distinct advantage, though is not as far ahead as the polls are now predicting. We believe her poll numbers will tighten somewhat, but below the noise of the polls the Fame-Feeling-Fluency dynamics remain settled and time is running out for Trump to shift them.

Fieldwork dates: 10th October-11th October. Next update: Tuesday 18th October.

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