For the second time in our weekly tracker, Hillary Clinton’s 3Fs rating has crossed the 5-star boundary (see above).
Fame, Feeling and Fluency are metrics designed to reflect the underlying fundamentals of a market – or a political race. Even in the most aggressive and eventful campaign in living memory, they have changed very little. All the drama – from Clinton’s 9/11 stumble to the Trump tape – has only confirmed, not changed, people’s underlying System 1 response to the Presidential candidates.
In fact, across the 10 weeks we’ve been tracking, we’ve seen only one game-changing shift. Hillary Clinton’s jump in Fluency after the first debate has turned into a sustained advantage. While Trump has taken a catastrophic plunge in Fluency.
Voters have become settled in their emotional response to the two candidates, and week-on-week Clinton’s lead on Feeling is rock solid.
Mutual media hostility may have contributed to a rise in Disgust for both candidates. But Trump still leads on that, and tails on Happiness. Participants who like the candidates respond to their tone – strength for Trump, positivity for Clinton.
Are the polls right to predict a landslide? We’re not so sure. There hasn’t been the big shift in Feeling to indicate that. But the overall picture is unmistakable, and nothing in the last month has shifted it. Barring massive unforeseen events, there is not enough time for Trump to close Clinton’s sustained, clear lead on Feeling and Fluency.
As predicted in our very first FFF wave back in January, Hillary Clinton will be the next President.
Read more on The Rise and Fall of Donald Trump.
Fieldwork dates: 14th October-16th October. Next update: Tuesday 25th October.