It’s been a long campaign, and the phrase “bitterly fought” has never been so appropriate. With one day to go, here are our final predictions based on our last weekly data wave.
PREDICTION ONE: Clinton In The White House
Our first prediction is also our longest-standing one. Back in January, we used our Fame, Feeling and Fluency model – which describes current brand strength and predicts future strength – to call the election before a single vote was cast.
We called the Republican nomination for Donald Trump at the same time Clinton campaign strategists did. We predicted a close-fought election, and a tight Clinton victory.
And with one day to go, that’s what our data is showing. Hillary Clinton has a narrow lead on Feeling and a narrow lead on Fluency.
It’s not as strong as it was before October’s FBI bombshell (this data predates Sunday’s new twist, as the FBI cleared Clinton once again). But the size of her combined FFF lead is exactly what we predicted in January. So in 9 months, our prediction hasn’t changed.
We predict Hillary Clinton will be America’s next President.
PREDICTION TWO: A Historically Unpopular President
Every President since JFK has entered office with the majority of Americans approving of them. We predict President Hillary Clinton will be the first to break this trend, though Donald Trump would fare no better.
Both candidates gained in Feeling over the course of the campaign – until the revelations of October sent their Feeling scores plunging, wiping out all the gains they made.
PREDICTION THREE: Impeachment Impending
We asked, under time pressure to force people into an instinctive response, whether they thought a President Clinton would be impeached? (We asked the same of President Trump). Leaving out non-respondents, 59% of people expected Clinton to be put through the impeachment process.
Looking at comments on her, you can understand why. Throughout the campaign, our respondents have consistently talked about her “corruption” and “lies”, with the FBI just the latest twist. With a Republican-controlled House, we think our respondents have it right. Fairly or not, We predict President Clinton will be impeached.
PREDICTION FOUR: Highest Turnout For Half A Century
Happiness for each candidate may be low, but we believe this will be a high turnout election, thanks to the emotional intensity each candidate commands and the way neutrality has reduced as the campaign nears its end. With both candidates having scored close to maximum on Fame since the beginning, the traditional turnout advantage in swing states will be reduced.
Our measures suggest people feel more strongly about Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton. Ordinarily, that would be an advantage – but not so when 55% of people feel negative about you. Trump ends the campaign making more people Disgusted than Happy.
Clinton will win, but it’s the strength of feeling against Trump that will drive her over the finish line. Elections this century have ranged from the all-time low of 50% turnout in 2000 to the high of Obama’s election in 2008, when 57% of the electorate voted. We predict turnout this election will break that record.
It’s been a divisive and hard-fought election, but on the System 1 measures people use to guide decisions, things haven’t changed much since the beginning. Fame, Feeling and Fluency are stable and predictive indicators of underlying dynamics in a market. And in the race for the White House, the market leader is Hillary Clinton.
Fieldwork dates: 4th November-6th November. Check back later this week for our post-election update.